The maximum number of people adults and children. Population structure by sex and age
The Russian classification of the population by age provides for the distribution of the population into the following groups:
from 1 day to 7 days - newborns;
from 7 days to 1 year - babies;
from 1 year to 3 years - early childhood;
from 4 years to 7 years - the first childhood;
from 8 years to 12 years (boys) and
from 8 years to 11 years (girls) - the second childhood;
13 to 16 years old (boys) and
from 12 years to 15 years (girls) - adolescents;
from 17 years to 21 years old - boys;
from 16 to 20 years old - girls;
from 22 years to 35 years (men) and
from 21 to 35 years (women) - I period of maturity;
from 36 years to 60 years (men) and
from 36 years to 55 years (women) - II period of maturity;
61 to 74 years (men) and
from 56 years to 74 years (women) - the elderly;
75 to 90 years old people;
over 90 years old - centenarians.
3. Age contingent.
Age group - a group of persons united by two characteristics: age and some socio-economic or other characteristic.
In Russia, there are the following age groups :
one). Nursery (from 0 to 2 years).
2). Preschool (from 3 to 6 years).
3). School (from 7 to 15 years).
4). Able-bodied (from 16 to 59 years old - men; from 16 to 54 years old - women).
5). Reproductive (childbearing) (women aged 15 to 49 years).
6). Conscription (men aged 18 to 49 years).
7). Electoral (men and women over 18).
In Russian statistics, as well as UN statistics, a special place is occupied by enlarged population groupings built on two criteria: age and ability to work. When distributing the population into one of the three enlarged groups, the following evaluation criteria are used:
one). Young disabled population:
From 0 to 15 years - for Russia;
From 0 to 14 years - for UN countries.
2). Adult working population:
From 16 to 60 (55) years - for Russia;
From 15 to 65 years - for UN countries.
3). The elderly disabled population:
Over 60 (55) years old - for Russia;
Over 65 years old - for UN countries.
As these data show, the period of labor activity in the UN countries is much wider than in Russia: the population is attracted to work earlier and retires later.
3.3.4. Age accumulation
Annual groups are subject to deformation under the influence of age accumulation.
Age accumulation - a denser concentration of the population in certain age groups compared to neighboring groups.
Age accumulation is the result of distortions in information about the age composition of the population.
Reasons for distortions in data on the age composition of the population:
1. The use of a survey method in statistical observations (censuses), in which there is no documented verification of the correctness of the data.
2. The tendency of people to round numbers to "0" at the end (or "5", etc.).
3. Psychological factor: women do not want to be older, old people want to be younger, teenagers are in a hurry to be adults; therefore, when questioned, these people can deliberately reduce (or increase) their age.
There are various methods for measuring age accumulation . All of them are based on the use of indices (coefficients) that characterize the strength of age accumulation. Most common Whipple index (coefficient) , which measures age accumulation in ages ending in "0" and "5":
where 
- population aged 25, 30, ..., 60 years;
- population aged 23, 24, ..., 62 years.
The lower the age accumulation, the lower the Whipple index.
Methods for reducing age accumulation:
1. Recording the date of birth of the person being rewritten, not his age.
2. Methods for smoothing protrusions and depressions in the age structure (artificial methods):
Graphic method;
moving average method
other.
All these methods make it possible to determine the age composition that is more consistent with reality.
In general, the manifestation of age accumulation depends on the level of development of the country. In developed countries, its importance is reduced to a minimum.
Age is the period from the birth of a person to a particular moment of his life.
The most important division of people by age into three categories:
1. Under 16 years old - 22.4%
2. 16-65 (able-bodied) - 64.6%
3. Over 65 years old (above working age) - 13%. In terms of territorial differences, the Far East is the youngest (in terms of population composition), the oldest is the Central Black Earth region.
The age structure of the population plays an important role in demographic processes, influencing the value of all demographic indicators. Thus, with a relatively high percentage of young people in the population, there will be a high marriage and birth rate and a low mortality rate (because, quite naturally, young people are less likely to get sick and even less likely to die). In turn, demographic processes have a strong influence on the age structure of the population.
The age structure plays an active role not only in demographic, but in all social processes. Age is associated with psychology, emotionality, to some extent - the human mind. Revolts and revolutions occur more often in societies with a young age structure. On the contrary, aging societies, with a high proportion of the elderly and the elderly, are prone to dogmatism and stagnation.
Information about the age of individual groups of people at the time of observation makes it possible to build the age structure of the population.
To build the age structure of the population, one-year and five-year age intervals are usually used. Much less often, the age structure is built on ten-year age intervals.
The five-year age structure is based on the following age groups: 0 years old, 1-4 years old, 5-9 years old, 10-14 years old, ..., 35-39 years old, ..., 80-84 years old, ..., 100 years and older.
This is the so-called standard age grouping, which is used in international demostatistical practice (in particular, in UN publications) and which should be followed by anyone who uses age as an independent or dependent variable. This is necessary to ensure comparability of the results of different studies.
The general trend in the change in the age structure of the population as the birth rate decreases and the average life expectancy grows, naturally, there is a trend towards an increase in the proportion of older people, i.e. the process of demographic aging of the population.
Under population aging, or demographic aging, is understood as an increase in the proportion of elderly and old people in the population.
There are two types of population aging:
· bottom aging which is the result of a declining birth rate.
· top aging, which is the result of an increase in the average life expectancy, a decrease in mortality at older ages in conditions of low birth rates.
In every society, a fairly stable age structure of the population develops. According to the predominance of certain ages in it, the population is characterized as “young”, “mature” or “aging” (types of age structures according to F. Burgdörfer), see Figure 1:
a) young (growing) population reflects a large proportion of children and a small proportion of the elderly, which creates conditions for population growth - a progressive type of age structure;
b) mature (stationary) population- with a predominance of adult generations and a moderate proportion of other ages. This type shows relative stability, population stability, the possibility of replacing outgoing generations with younger ones. This composition of the population supports its achieved size - a stationary type of the age structure of the population;
c) an aging (decreasing) population- with an increased proportion of older ages compared to children's generations - a regressive type of age structure of the population. This indicates a possible decline in the number of people, in which the younger generations do not make up for the number of those leaving.
a B C)
Population aging has adverse economic and social consequences. First, the proportion of pensioners by age is increasing. An exorbitant burden of spending on the payment of pensions falls on pension funds, as the share of the able-bodied population that makes contributions to these funds is declining.
Secondly, an increase in the proportion of older people poses a challenge for society to organize care for them, especially since the proportion of people over 80 years of age is growing faster than the proportion of older people in general. The process of "aging of the elderly" is especially significant for government bodies that develop social policies, services designed to help helpless old people.
Thirdly, medical care for the elderly, the need for which naturally increases with aging. Medical care requires additional funds, expansion of the network of medical and gerontological institutions, and a qualitative restructuring of the healthcare system.
Fourthly, the employment of the elderly population, the provision of work for “young seniors” who want to work (as a rule, people under 70-75 are referred to as “young seniors”). This is a difficult problem as jobs are scarce.
In accordance with three types of age structure, population reproduction modes can be distinguished:
Expanded reproduction - in each next generation there are more people than in the previous one: the population is rapidly increasing (typical for most modern developing countries of the world);
simple reproduction - in subsequent generations there are about the same number of people as in previous ones; population, as a rule, almost does not change (typical for some developing and developed countries);
narrowed reproduction - there are fewer people in subsequent generations than in previous ones; the population is declining (typical for most developed European countries, including Russia).
When compared with other countries with low fertility, it turns out that Russia's population is not the oldest. In 1990, it ranked 25th among such countries (a more dramatic position in Japan, Italy, Germany). This is not surprising, since Russia, firstly, is at that stage of the aging process, when the proportion of the middle-aged population practically does not change and aging occurs due to a decrease in the proportion of children, and secondly, due to low life expectancy, not all people live to old age.
Currently, the proportion of people aged 65 years and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to the UN scale, the population is considered old if the proportion of this age exceeds 7%.
The process of demographic aging of the population is much more characteristic of women, who make up more than two-thirds (68.7%) of Russians.
The average age of the inhabitants of the country is 38.9 years (in 2009 - 38.8 years), men respectively 36.2 years (36.1), women - 41.2 years (41.1). The average age of the population over 40 years old is noted in 28 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the highest age is in the regions of the European part of Russia: in Tula, Ryazan, Tambov, Voronezh, Pskov, Tver, Penza, etc. St. Petersburg and Moscow - 42.2 - 41.1 years.
Every fifth inhabitant of Russia (30.7 million people as of January 1, 2010) is at retirement age. The number of children and adolescents under 16 is 7.9 million people, or 25.6% less than those older than working age. The preponderance of older people takes place in 62 subjects of the Russian Federation, the largest: in the Tula region and St. Petersburg - 2 times, Ryazan and Voronezh regions - 1.9 times, Tambov, Leningrad, Ivanovo, Penza, Pskov, Yaroslavl regions, Moscow - 1.8 times.
The population at the age of 0-15 has been declining for 18 years (1990-2007). In 2008, due to the growth in the number of births, the number of births in this age group increased slightly - by 44 thousand, or 0.2%, in 2009 - by 313 thousand, or 1.4%.
The lowest proportion of children aged 0-15 years in the total population is observed in Moscow and St. Petersburg - 13.0-12.9% (in Russia as a whole - 16.1%).
The working-age population, compared with the beginning of 2009, decreased by 0.9 million or 1.0% (in 2008 by 0.4 million or 0.5%) and by the beginning of 2010 amounted to. 88.4 million people. The demographic load indicator increased to 606 people per 1,000 of the working-age population (in 2009 - 590, respectively), incl. load of children - 259 (253), and people of retirement age - 347 (337).
Gender composition of the population
The sex composition of the population is also of great importance, since data on the ratio of men and women in general and at different ages are important for analyzing the process of population reproduction. The main reasons that determine the sex ratio in the world are: the excess of the male population over the female population at birth (by 5-6%), and by old age there is a preponderance of women, but by the age of 18-20 the sex ratio levels off.
The gender structure of the population is formed under the influence of three main factors:
1) sex ratio among newborns (biological constant);
2) sex differences in mortality;
3) gender differences in the intensity of population migration.
On average, more boys are born than girls, and the sex ratio among newborns is stable: 105-106 boys per 100 girls. According to physiologists, the male body in infancy is less resilient and more boys die at the beginning of their lives. Further, mortality is modified: in developed countries, the mortality of men is higher due to injuries and occupational diseases, as well as alcoholism and smoking; in developing countries, female mortality is often higher, as a result of early marriage, frequent childbirth, hard work, malnutrition and unequal status in society.
The reasons for the difference in the average life expectancy of men and women are singled out (in Russia, women now live, on average, almost 20 years longer than men):
· the impact of wars, which mainly take the lives of men (this mainly explains the existing gender disproportion in our country);
· Migration, in which mainly men take part;
· the nature of the economy, presenting a different demand for male and female labor. In general, now the number of men in the world is 20-30 million more than the number of women. But the sex ratio among the dead changed. If in 1989 there were 1077 dead women per 1000 dead men, then in 2002 - 866 and in 2003 - 859. In other words, the proportion of women among the dead decreased from 51-52% to 46%.
The preponderance of the number of women over the number of men develops in middle ages as a result of the different rates of extinction of the female and male population (for certain territories, migration processes may also have a certain significance) and increases with the transition to older age groups. In the post-war years, the "female preponderance" was noted already in the younger groups - starting from 25-29 years old, and at the age of 35 years and older it became especially pronounced. In subsequent years, the disproportion of the sexes shifted more and more to the older age groups. The results of the 2002 census show that the gender disparity has rejuvenated again. The biologically predetermined excess of the male population over the female population has already been exhausted in the group of 25-29 years. At the age of 30 years and older, there are more and more women compared to male peers - due to the higher mortality of the latter. Compared with the male population, the proportion of older and lower the proportion of younger ages is higher among the female population. The median age of women in Russia was 39.8 years in 2002, and that of men was 34.1 years. The ratio of women to men varies considerably across regions of Russia. According to current records at the beginning of 2004, in 44 regions-subjects of the Russian Federation, the ratio of the number of men and women corresponded to the average for the country or exceeded it, and in some of them quite significantly. In the Vladimir, Ivanovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Novgorod, Smolensk, Tver, Tula and Yaroslavl regions, as well as in St. Petersburg, there were from 1205 to 1238 women per 1000 men. But in other regions, the female preponderance was not so significant, and in three regions - the Kamchatka region, the Chukotka and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, men predominated (926-996 women per 1000 men), and in three more - Koryak, Nenets and Evenk the number of men equaled the number of women. Regions with a younger population are characterized by a smaller gender disproportion, which naturally follows from the nature of gender asymmetry in the Russian age-sex pyramid. Accordingly, the gap in the average age of living men and women is much smaller where the gender disproportion is smaller. This gap is maximum in the Central and Northwestern federal districts, and minimal in the Far East. in those regions where at the 1989 census it was noticeably higher than in other regions of Russia. Apparently, this is due to the outflow of men of working age from these areas, who were previously attracted to these areas by more favorable working conditions, which later changed in the process of transition to a market economy. At the same time, in 18 subjects of the federation, there was a noticeable increase in the number of men per 1,000 women. Among them are Moscow, the Komi-Permyatsky Autonomous Okrug, the Republics of Adygea, North Ossetia, Dagestan, where the growth was more than 20 points and was the result of either a significant entry (Moscow) or a relatively high birth rate (the republics of the North Caucasus). The demographic future of the country is obviously connected with the number of potential mothers - women of reproductive age (the interval from 15 to 44 years is chosen). Over the past 50 years, their number in Russia, despite some fluctuations, has generally grown, now it is greater than ever. The proportion of women of reproductive age varies quite strongly across the regions of Russia - from 21.1% in the Tula and Ryazan regions, to 27.2% in the Yamalo-Nenets 27.4% in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs. The differences between the federal districts are much smaller. The maximum - 24.1% falls on the Ural and Siberian Federal Districts, the minimum - 23.3 - on the Central District.
Employment of the population of the Russian Federation
The problems of labor and labor relations have always been side by side with the equally important problem of employment.
Employment is the most important part of the economic element of management, an economic category that is complex in content and structure. Employment is the activity of the able-bodied population, connected with the satisfaction of his personal and social needs and, as a rule, bringing him earnings.
The content of the term "employment" includes both the need of people in various types of socially useful activities, and the degree of satisfaction of this need. Consequently, the problems of employment of the population do not coincide with the problems of unemployment, since it is necessary to take into account the peculiarities of employment of various socio-demographic groups of the population, the motivation of workers, changes in the structure of labor resources and other factors. The goal of ensuring full and productive employment is to achieve an increase in labor efficiency, the formation of an employment structure in accordance with the needs, the improvement of the sectoral and regional structure of production, and the consideration of socio-demographic factors.
Employed are:
1. employed;
2. temporarily absent due to disability, vacation, advanced training, suspension of production;
3. self-employed;
4. appointed or approved to a paid position;
5. serving in the armed forces;
6. able-bodied citizens studying in schools and other educational institutions, including those studying in the direction of the employment service.
The practical need to account for the population necessitates the allocation of types of employment. Thus, a distinction is made between full, productive and freely chosen employment.
Full employment is the provision of professional work that brings income to the individual and a decent existence for him and his family.
Full employment is a goal to strive for. It is achieved when there is an appropriate level of development of the productive forces and the demand for labor coincides with its supply.
The main meaning of productive employment is as follows. Not any work can be considered socially acceptable, but only one that meets two essential requirements. First, employment should bring income to workers, providing decent living conditions for a person. Secondly, productive employment is opposed to formal employment. A special case of the latter - the maintenance of surplus workers or the creation of formal jobs in order to avoid unemployment - state policy should help ensure that the work of each person is economically feasible, as productive as possible for society.
Freely chosen employment assumes that the right to dispose of one's own ability to work (labor force) belongs exclusively to its owner, i.e. the worker himself. This principle guarantees the right of every worker to choose between employment and unemployment.
The above types of employment reflect the state of quantitative and qualitative balancing between the population's need for work and jobs, which creates favorable conditions for the socio-economic progress of society.
Employment of the population can be considered effective if it provides a decent income, health, personal development, and the growth of the educational and professional level for each member of society based on the growth of social labor productivity.
The combination of full and effective employment implies the freedom of workers and employers, the abolition of strict state regulation in the field of labor relations, the flexibility of labor in terms of forms of employment, organization of the labor process, and the elimination of obsolete prohibitions in labor activity. On the other hand, market relations in the sphere of labor imply the right for employers to decide on the quantity and quality of the labor force used and to dismiss workers who are superfluous in terms of production.
Problems of employment of the population
The problem of employment of the population is the problem of involving people in labor activity and the degree of satisfaction of their need for work with jobs. It is impossible to achieve such a situation that the entire able-bodied population is employed. After all, some enter the labor force, others leave it, the third are fired or they themselves quit, the fourth are in search of work, i.e. there is a normal movement of the labor force, part of which remains unemployed for a certain period of time.
One of the types of labor market structuring is its division according to demographic and professional characteristics.
Distinguish:
· Youth labor market The situation that has been developing in the Russian youth labor market in recent years is quite tense and is characterized by a downward trend. The scale of registered and hidden unemployment among young people is growing, and its duration is increasing. The struggle for the survival of Russian enterprises leads to tougher conditions for young people to enter the labor market. Meanwhile, the opportunities of young people are already limited due to their lower competitiveness compared to other categories of the population.
The labor market of persons of pre-retirement age and pensioners. It is characterized by low labor productivity, low economic activity, lack of or limited opportunities for retraining.
Women's labor market. Its peculiarity is the possible long breaks in work associated with the birth and upbringing of children, a decrease in professional abilities for the same reason.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the following conclusions can be drawn:
· the age structure has a natural influence on the natural movement of the population, which is expressed in terms of fertility and mortality. The higher the proportion of young ages in the population, the higher the total fertility rates calculated for the entire population of the territory. The higher the proportion of older ages, the higher the value of the total mortality rate. Age is the most important characteristic of any demographic events, which determines the frequency (intensity) of their occurrence.
· Decline in the birth rate is becoming extremely dangerous for Russia. First, the internal potential of demographic reproduction has been exhausted. After all, to replace generations of parents, you need a birth rate, measured by a total fertility rate of at least 2.1, and today it is only 1.2. Secondly, the population and labor force are aging, people's health is declining, the one-child family is becoming dominant.
In addition, the aging of the population plays an important role, which has adverse economic and social consequences. There is an increase in the proportion of pensioners by age. An exorbitant burden of spending on the payment of pensions falls on pension funds, because the proportion of the working population that makes contributions to these funds is declining. Secondly, an increase in the proportion of older people poses a challenge for society to organize care for them, especially since the proportion of people over 80 years of age is growing faster than the proportion of older people in general. Thirdly, medical care for the elderly, the need for which naturally increases with aging. Medical care requires additional funds, expansion of the network of medical and gerontological institutions, and a qualitative restructuring of the healthcare system.
· despite the state policy in the field of motherhood stimulation, population decline continues.
Bibliography
I Regulations:
1. The Constitution of the Russian Federation
2. Address of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation dated April 25, 2005
3. Federal Law of December 29, 2006 N 256-FZ "On additional measures of state support for families with children"
5. The project "Strategies for the socio-economic development of Perm until 2030"
II Educational literature:
6. Butov V.I., Ignatov V.G. Demography. - M., 2003.-, .Social atlas of Russian regions / Thematic reviews, 2007. - .
7. Vishnevsky A. G. Sickle and ruble. Conservative modernization in the USSR. M.: OGI, 1998- .
8. Data from the Ministry of Health and Social Development 2009 - .
9. "Demographic Research" No. 1, 2005 - .
10. Women and men of Russia 2010 // Rosstat - , , .
11. Domestic Notes No. 23, 2005 - .
12. Regional studies / Ed. A. A. Morozova. M.: 2004., p. 23-25 - .
13. Russian newspaper 2010 - .
14. Information on the number of registered births, deaths, marriages and divorces for January-May 2010 // Rosstat -.
15. Starovoitova L.I., Zolotareva T.F. Employment of the population and its regulation: Proc. allowance for students. Higher textbook establishments. - M .: Academy, 2003 - p.
16. Total fertility rate // Rosstat -,.
17. Statistics: a course of lectures / Ed. V. G. Ionina. M.: 2002. - .
18. Khalturina D. A., Korotaev A. V. (Ed.). The alcohol catastrophe and the potential of state policy in overcoming alcohol supermortality in Russia. Moscow: URSS, 2008. - .
19. Khalturina D.A., Korotaev A.V. Russian cross: Factors, mechanisms and ways to overcome the demographic crisis in Russia. Moscow: URSS, 2006., p.33-35.-.
Annex 1
The birth rate looks like this:
1980 - 15.9 per 1000 people
1990 - 13.4 per 1000 people
1995 - 9.3 per 1000 people
1996 - 8.9 per 1000 people
1997 - 8.6 per 1000 people
1998 - 8.8 per 1000 people
1999 - 8.3 per 1000 people
2000 - 8.7 per 1000 people
2001 - 9.0 per 1000 people
2002 - 9.7 per 1000 people
2003 - 10.2 per 1000 people
2004 - 10.4 per 1000 people
2005 - 10.2 per 1000 people
2006 - 10.4 per 1000 people
2007 - 11.3 per 1000 people
2008 - 12.1 per 1000 people
2009 - 12.4 per 1000 people
2010 - 12.4 per 1000 people (January-June)
Rosstat data 2010
Annex 2
Population change in 2009
| Number of subjects in a group | Subjects of the Russian Federation included in the group | |
| 1 The number of subjects of the Russian Federation in which the population has decreased | ||
| Total | ||
| including through: | ||
| natural decline and migration outflow of the population | Republics of Karelia, Komi, Mari El, Mordovia; Altai, Perm and Primorsky Territories; Amur, Arkhangelsk, Volgograd, Kirov, Kostroma, Kurgan, Magadan, Murmansk, Omsk, Pskov, Sakhalin, Ulyanovsk regions; Jewish Autonomous Region. | |
| excess of natural loss over migration gain | Chuvash Republic; Khabarovsk region; Bryansk, Vladimir, Vologda, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kemerovo, Kursk, Leningrad, Lipetsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Novgorod, Orel, Penza, Rostov, Ryazan, Samara, Saratov, Sverdlovsk, Smolensk, Tambov, Tver, Tula, Chelyabinsk and Yaroslavl regions ; | |
| excess of migration outflow over natural increase | Republics of Kalmykia, Karachay-Cherkess, Sakha (Yakutia), North Ossetia-Alania and Udmurt; Trans-Baikal and Kamchatka Territories; Irkutsk region; Chukotka Autonomous Okrug | |
| 2 The number of subjects of the Russian Federation in which the population has increased | ||
| Total | ||
| including through: | Dldtlob | |
| natural and migratory growth | Republics of Bashkortostan, Ingushetia and Khakassia; Krasnoyarsk region; Astrakhan, Tomsk and Tyumen regions; Nenets and Khanty-Mansiysk - Yugra autonomous regions | |
| excess of natural increase over migration outflow | Republics of Altai, Buryatia, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkarian, Tyva and Chechen; Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug | |
| excess of migration gain over natural loss | Republics of Adygea and Tatarstan; Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories; Belgorod, Kaliningrad, Moscow, Novosibirsk and Orenburg regions; Moscow and St. Petersburg. |
Appendix 3
Age - the total number of years that a person lived from the moment of his birth to a particular event in his life. There are biological age, which is fixed by periods of childhood, youth, maturity and old age, and calendar age, which is fixed by the number of years lived. Demographics also defines age indicators such as age of majority, age of marriage, reproductive age, working age, retirement age, average life expectancy, longevity, and average age of death. Different countries have their own special age qualifications (restrictions on rights by age), for example, the right to vote and be elected to office, the right to enter the full-time department of a university, the right to legally punish minors. Information about age is obtained from documents of state registration of certain events (birth, marriage, death), from identity documents, current population records, population censuses and ongoing empirical studies.
Age, being a common coordinate of all demographic processes, is fixed and taken into account when registering important events in a person's life. Age is usually measured in years, however, in newborns - in days, in the first month of life - in weeks, in the first year of life - in months. In the vast majority of countries, age calculation starts from the day of birth. But, for example, in Korea, already at the birth of a child, his age is calculated as one year. In China, Vietnam, Indonesia, a person becomes a year older from the beginning of the calendar year, regardless of the date of birth.
A person's age is established either by a certificate (official or oral) about the date of his birth, or by answering the question about the full number of years completed on the last birthday. Sometimes, in surveys, some people (usually young people) add a few years to themselves in order to appear older, while others (more often the elderly) decrease in order to appear younger.
The term "age structure of the population" was introduced in German statistics in the second half of the 19th century. Age stricture - distribution of the entire population by age groups on the territory of the country to study demographic and socio-economic processes. One of the first models of such a structure was proposed by the ancient Greek mathematician Pythagoras, who distributed age groups according to the seasons: up to 20 years old - spring (childhood), up to 40 years old - summer (youth), up to 60 years old - autumn (maturity), after 60 years - winter (old age). Russian demographer of the 19th century. L. P. Roslavsky-Petrovsky (1816-1872) proposed to distinguish: "the younger generation" - up to 15 years old, "blooming generation" - up to 60 years old and "fading generation" - after 60 years old. The Soviet demographer B. Ts. Urlanis considered it expedient to single out age groups before the working (younger than working age) period - up to 15 years, the working (working age) period - up to 59 years, and after the working (older than working age) period - over 60 years. This allocation of age groups is used, as a rule, in economic demography.
Currently, the following age groups are distinguished in the demographic structure of the Russian population:
- - newborns (from 0 to 7 days);
- - infants (from 7 days to 1 year);
- - children of preschool age (from 1 year to 6 years);
- - schoolchildren (from 6 to 17 years old);
- - youth of reproductive age (from 17 to 30 years);
- - adults of reproductive age (women - from 30 to 55 years old, men - from 30 to 60 years old);
- - elderly (women - after 55 years, men - after 60 years);
- - centenarians (over 80 years old).
In China, age groups are classified as follows: youth - up to 20 years old, married - up to 30 years old, performing public duties - up to 40 years old, knowing their own delusions - up to 50 years old, experiencing the last creative period of life - up to 60 years old, living the desired age - up to 70 years, old - over 70 years.
According to the international classification, it is recommended to calculate the age structure for five years, from 0 to 100 years and older. In this case, only the total number of years lived is taken into account (for example, the first group is 0-4 years, the second - 5-9 years, the third - 10-14, etc.). In empirical studies, age groups are calculated, as a rule, according to special occupational age characteristics. Allocate median age - the average age of the population in the country, and modal is the most common age in the country. According to the 2010 All-Russian Population Census, the median age of men was 35 years, women - 41 years. and the modal age is 36.3 and 41.4 years, respectively.
In Russian demographic statistics, in the group from 0 to 5 years, age groups are distinguished according to an annual basis. In order to study the reproduction of the population in demography, three main age groups are distinguished:
- - group up to reproductive age (from 0 to 14 years);
- - reproductive age group (women - from 15 to 55 years old, men - from 15 to 60 years old);
- - group after reproductive age (women - over 55 years old, men - over 60 years old).
Currently, in the world, the group before the reproductive period is 27%, the group of the reproductive period - 65%, the group after the reproductive period - 8%.
In 1894 a Swedish demographer Axel-Gustav Sundberg (1857-1914) introduced into scientific use the concept of "age structure of the population" and its types: "stationary structure of the population", "progressive structure of the population" and "regressive structure of the population". He also proposed to distinguish three age groups: "children" - from 0 to 14 years old, "parents" - 15-49 years old and "grandparents" - over 50 years old. According to his calculations, a stationary age structure can be considered when children make up 27.0% of the total population, and grandparents - 23.0%; progressive - respectively 40.0 and 23.0%; regressive - 20.0 and 30.0%.
According to demographers, the age structure of the population can be considered progressive if the proportion of "children" in it exceeds the proportion of "grandparents", and if regressive In the age structure, the proportion of "grandparents" exceeds the proportion of children. In the structure of the world's population, the proportion of children currently averages 34%, adults - 58%, the elderly - 8%, which indicates the progressive age structure of the global community.
A progressive age structure indicates an expanded reproduction, a regressive one indicates a narrowed one. A progressive age structure is inherent in developing countries with a young population. Economically developed countries are characterized by a regressive age structure. In Russia in 1897, the proportion of "children" in the age structure was 38.0%, "grandparents" - 14.0%, and now 16.0 and 31.0%, respectively, which indicates a change in the progressive age structure of the country's population to a regressive one.
In the course of demographic studies, the following patterns were established:
- - the higher the birth rate, the younger the population structure;
- - the younger the population structure, the higher the birth rate.
According to the All-Russian Population Census of 2010, the age group of the population younger than working age is 17.4%, working age - 60.6%, older than working age - 21.3%. The lowest proportion of children is observed in Moscow (13.2% of the population) and St. Petersburg (13.7%). For comparison, we can cite Yemen and Kenya, where the largest percentage of the number of children is up to 50%.
WHO classification elderly people between the ages of 60 and 74 are considered old - from 75 to 89 years old, centenarians - over 90 years old. A society is recognized as old if the proportion of people over 65 in it is more than 7.0% of the total population. In the last 20 years, the number of people in the world over 60 has doubled, more than children under the age of five. According to demographers, by 2050 the proportion of older people in the world's population will reach 21%. Currently, in the countries of the European Union (hereinafter referred to as the EU), more than 16.0% are people over 65 years of age. In Europe, the "youngest" country is Ireland, in which 11.5% of people are aged 65 and over, and the "oldest" is Sweden, where there are 17.5% of citizens of this age. In Russia, this age group in 2010 was 17.3% of the population. Compared to Europe, the US is a younger country, although it has the same percentage of people aged 65 and over as Russia. In most countries of Africa and Southwest Asia, people aged 65 and over make up 2-3%, and the number of children exceeds 40.0%.
In 2013, in Russia, the number of people who have reached the age of 90 was 390 thousand people, and 100-year-old residents - about 7 thousand people. There are 3.4 times more women over 75 than men of the same age. 40 thousand centenarians live in Moscow. In St. Petersburg, there are more than 19 thousand centenarians over 90 years old and 326 people who have crossed the 100-year mark, the vast majority of which are women.
In the USSR, the resident of Azerbaijan, Shirali Muslimov, who died in 1973 at the age of 168, was recognized as the oldest person. Since Sh. Muslimov did not have a birth certificate, Western researchers refuse to consider him the oldest person in history. In Europe, maximum life expectancy has been documented in France by Jeanne Kelman, who died in 1997 at the age of 122. In Russia, the maximum officially confirmed age was recorded in 2009 for a resident of Kabardino-Balkaria, Ula Margusheva, 125 years old.
Modern processes of change in the age structure of the population are due, on the one hand, to a reduction in the group of newborns, and on the other, to an increase in the group of elderly people. Reducing the number of newborns in the age structure of the country can lead to a demographic crisis. The increase in the number of older people in the age structure of the country increases the burden on its socio-economic basis.
As the birth rate declines and life expectancy increases, the global demographic trend is a steady increase in the proportion of older people in the age structure of society. Such a process in the age structure of a country or region in demography is called population aging. The main factors of population aging are the processes of declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. The decrease in mortality at younger ages contributes to the rejuvenation of the age structure of the population. The increase in life expectancy at older ages contributes to the aging of the population only at a very low birth rate. In rural areas, due to the migration of young people, the rate of population aging is increasing.
To assess the degree of aging of the population abroad, such an indicator as the proportion of residents over 65 and the age structure of the country's population is used. In Russia, this indicator is calculated for people over 60 years old. In 1959 it was 9.0%, in 1979 - 13.7%, in 1999 - 18.1%, in 2002 - 19.4%, in 2010 - 21.3% . According to demographers' forecasts, by 2030 the proportion of older people in European countries will be 25%.
In demography, two directions of the population aging process are distinguished: aging from below and aging from above. Aging from below due to a decrease in the birth rate, which leads to an increase in the proportion of older people in the age structure of the population. Aging from above - the result of increasing the life expectancy of people by improving the socio-economic conditions of their lives and the improvement of sanitary and medical services in the country. In economically developed countries, the aging of the population from above prevails today. For modern Russia, the aging of the population from below is characteristic. Currently, the population of Japan is recognized as the oldest, where the proportion of people over 65 is about 30%, and by the middle of the 21st century. should reach more than 40%. The conclusions of foreign demographers indicate that in conditions of low fertility and low mortality, the process of aging of the age structure is irreversible. The report "Global Human Development Trends to 2015", prepared by the US National Intelligence Council and leading American experts, notes that in developed and developing countries, the increase in pensioners "will lead to an overstrain of the social security system, pension system and health care system."
In the last 20 years, the number of people over 60 in the world has doubled. Nearly half of EU residents are now of retirement age. Russia ranks 44th in the world in terms of the proportion of people over 60 years of age. In St. Petersburg, every fourth resident is a pensioner. The increase in the proportion of older people in the age structure of the country places increased demands on their socio-economic maintenance and medical care. In order to relieve the socio-economic burden caused by the increase in the number of older people, some countries are revising the criteria for pension provision and increasing the retirement age. At present, in the USA, Germany, Finland and Japan, the retirement age for men and women is 65; in France, for men, 65; for women, 60; in Russia, for men, 60; and for women, 55. . The State Duma of Russia has repeatedly raised the issue of revising the retirement age in the direction of increasing it and reducing the categories of those who were previously provided with a preferential retirement age. Currently, the Government of the Russian Federation is discussing the possibility of increasing the retirement age for residents of the country to the European level.
In demography, to visualize the age and sex structure of the population, gender pyramid, which is a bar chart of the distribution of the country's population by sex and age. On this pyramid, the number of people of different sex and age periods or their share in the total population is fixed. The configuration of the sex and age pyramid is a two-sided directional diagram, on which the number of people of each sex and age is depicted by a horizontal bar of the same scale. The bars are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age value from 0 to 100 years, on the left - for men, on the right - for women. In most cases, the image of the sex and age pyramid has the shape of a pyramid, since the number of older people is usually less than that of younger people (Fig. 5.1).
Rice. 5.1.
In some cases, demographers use three types of representation of the sex and age structure: in the form of a pyramid for a young population, in the form of a bell for an aging population, and in the form of a rounded amphora for a very old population. These forms make it possible to visually determine, respectively, the rapid rate of population growth, the decline in the birth rate of the population, or the decline of the latter.
The configuration of the pyramid depends on the number of births and the number of deaths of representatives of different sexes at a certain age. Population migration has a significant impact on the configuration of the modern sex and age pyramid. The majority of migrants are young men of working age. As a result, an increase in the number of immigrants leads to an expansion of the middle part of the pyramid, and an increase in the number of emigrants leads to its narrowing. Age and sex pyramids make it possible to compare the sex and age structure of men and women, urban and rural populations, to study their changes in dynamics, to conduct a comparative analysis of the age and sex structures of different countries and regions. Age and sex pyramids are usually built from census data or from statistical data at yearly or five-year intervals.
Age is not only a quantitative and absolute concept. It still exists as a stage in the process of psychological and physical development. And quite a long time. From birth to death, to be exact. Dozens of years, and some - about or more than a hundred. And, accordingly, age categories and periods of life could not but form, which in many respects intersect with each other. However, this can be discussed in more detail.
Infancy
If we talk about age categories, then it is necessary to start from the earliest period. And this, of course, is infancy. Which is also divided into certain categories. The first lasts from the moment of birth until the 1st month. It is determined by weak emotional development - the child has a too “generalized” state. And the baby himself requires the constant participation of parents in every process of his life.
2nd period - from two to three months. It is characterized by a more developed emotional system. You can see that the baby already knows how to get upset and smile at familiar people, even focus on the face.
The next period lasts from 4 to 6 months. The child already has a more or less strengthened emotional and sensory system. He recognizes people who are constantly near him, distinguishes acquaintances from strangers, knows how to determine the direction from which sounds come.
In the period from 7 months to 1.5 years, the child undergoes the formation and training of motor abilities. When his age exceeds the mark of 2 years, the time of increased physical activity begins. And the child himself moves to another age category.
Childhood
This is quite a long period. Which is divided into several more. For early childhood (from 1 to 3 years) and (from 3 to 7). The first category is often called the nursery. This is a conditional division, which is associated mainly with social reasons. A child who first went through a nursery, and then through a kindergarten, does not experience further difficulties with fitting into a new team (class at school).
If we talk about age categories, then such a cell as schoolchildren can be considered one of the most difficult in psychological terms. Since it is during the period of education that the personality of the child is formed and a certain “foundation” is laid, which will play its role in the future.
In addition, children belonging to the school age category are growing intensively in all plans. There are such processes as ossification of the spine and growth of the skeleton, muscle tissue grows, the nervous apparatus of the muscles finishes forming, but lung tissue, lung capacity and volume increase. And, of course, the early age categories of children are characterized by the functional development of the brain. By the age of 8-9, the child already has a firmly established
Teenage years
It also needs to be noted with attention, talking about age categories. This period is ambiguous. Girls are considered teenagers between 10 and 18 years old. Boys - from 12 to 18.
Children of this age are experiencing turning points in the development of the body, because puberty occurs. The activity of the endocrine system changes, as does the functionality of organs. Children begin to grow more intensively, an increase in body weight is observed. The production of hormones is enhanced, which is reflected in psychosocial development. ends with the end of puberty. And children move to another age category.
Youth and youth
Here the psychological aspect plays an important role, not the biological one. And opinions differ. So, for example, psychologist E. Erickson believes that youth lasts from 13 to 19 years old, after which youth sets in, which lasts until the age of 35. During this period, the person begins to “ripen”, realize himself and, as a rule, enter into relationships.
But if we turn to the classification of the APN of the USSR, defined in 1965, then after the teenage period follows But for girls it starts at 16 and ends at 20, and for guys it lasts from 17 to 21.
If we talk about the biological component, then in people of this age category, the final completion of physical development is observed. But only in guys the body does not yet reach the strength and strength characteristic of an adult man. The same applies to girls. The figure of young ladies is clearly different from those possessed by women who have gone through childbirth. And in biological terms, the concept of youth is conditional for this very reason. A person may be 19 years old, and, in fact, psychologically she is considered a girl. But if she gave birth to a child, then her body loses its youth. And call her objectively a woman, not a girl.
Average age
Or, as it is commonly called, maturity. Talking about the age categories of people by year, it cannot be ignored. It is believed that this is the longest period. Traditionally, it lasts from 21 to 60 years for men, and from 20 to 55 for women.
The table of age categories shows that it is divided into two periods. The first - from 21-20 to 35. It is characterized by stable functioning of the body. After 35, the average person begins neuroendocrine restructuring. Basic physiological indicators are slowly but progressively decreasing. Perhaps the appearance of primary signs of diseases that usually overcome older people. But if a person is healthy, leads the right way of life, then all this can be postponed for an indefinite period. Again, the age categories of people are one thing, but how they manage their health is quite another. At 20, you can look 35, and vice versa. For some "persons" and at 25, the kidneys fail.
Maturity specifics
Specialists studying the age categories of the population managed to find out a lot of interesting and useful data. For example, human mortality from malignant tumors has tripled over the past 60 years.
And due to the fact that by the second period of maturity, a person increasingly begins to feel tired from constant work and the same lifestyle, various forms of pathology begin to appear. These are injuries (domestic and industrial), tumors, cardiovascular diseases. Largely due to the fact that a person ceases to critically evaluate himself - it seems to him that he is as young and full of energy as at 25. But if he is 50, then he can no longer do anything the way he does dealt with it 20 years ago.
And cardiovascular disease is a sad topic at all. They arise due to the fact that constantly accompanies a modern person in life: stress, nervous tension, depression, poor nutrition, lack of physical activity, smoking, alcohol. In addition to this, during the period of middle age, additional mental stresses are added, which appear for personal and family reasons.
Retirement age
It is entered by men and women who are 60 and 55 years old respectively. Signs of aging are growing: the structure of the hair and skin is changing, the gait becomes different, the shape of the figure is changing. Retirement age is accompanied by a decrease in the mass of the heart and its frequency contractions. Blood vessels lose elasticity, a certain amount of blood is also lost. The respiratory system also changes. The chest, due to changes in the tendons and ossification of the ribs, ceases to be as mobile as before. And the lungs, respectively, cannot cope with their task as before "briskly".
But, of course, it also depends on physiology. People can look great and feel great both at 65 and at 70. Again, lifestyle matters and how “tired” a person has been during his existence. The age categories of people by year is one thing. But the way they feel psychologically is completely different.
eldership
This is the last period of life, it is allocated conditionally. It usually lasts from 75 to 90-100 years. But this is in our time. In general, age periodization is a strange and controversial topic, especially if it concerns people who are “over 35”.
Recall, at least, the end of the XIX century. Then people of 45-50 years old were considered to be deep old people, who should have retired already! And this is really inspiring in our time. It turns out that old age gradually “recedes”, and the duration of young ages increases as a result.
Composition of the population studied from different points of view. In table. 4.1 has already shown the division of the population into urban and rural. Be sure to study the composition of the population by semi and age. It is important to study family and national composition of the population, distribution by sources of livelihood. For our country, which has a vast territory, the study of distribution of the population across the territory. From the point of view of the quality of the population, the distribution of the population according to the level of education is of great importance.
The sex ratio in the total population is an important characteristic of the viability of the people, it is taken into account when studying the patterns of population reproduction, primarily marriage and fertility.
The composition of the population by sex is reflected in absolute and relative indicators. To this end:
- - grouping by sex is carried out and the absolute numbers of men and women in the entire population are calculated;
- - the sex ratio is determined, i.e. the ratio of men to women in the entire population - usually this indicator is presented as the number of women per 100 or 1000 men.
The sex structure of the population depends on the combined effect of three factors: on the ratio of boys and girls among those born alive, on differences in mortality between men and women, and on differences between men and women in migration turnover.
Nature has established a male predominance, i.e. the predominance of the number of male births over the number of female births. This overbalance is 5-6%; 100 births of girls account for 105-106 births of boys. Then, as a result of increased male mortality, this preponderance disappears and gives way to a female preponderance. An essential fact
The torus that changes the sex ratio is wars. In Russia, a significant female preponderance arose as a result of the First World War, the Civil War, and especially the Great Patriotic War. According to the VPN-2010, the female overweight was 1162. Thus, in Russia at the end of the first decade of the 21st century. There were 1,162 women per 1,000 males, or the female preponderance was 16.2%.
The sex ratio indicator is more sensitive to changes in the sex structure than the percentage of men and women in the population.
In peacetime, the ratio of the number of men and women in each country depends on the socio-economic conditions of life. In general, there are slightly more men on Earth than women. Male preponderance is observed in a number of countries: China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Iraq, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates. The gender composition of the country's population is also influenced by the level of urbanization, since the share of men in the urban population is usually higher than that of women.
Figures for the total number of men and women, and even the sex ratio, by themselves say little. Population structure is important by age. The age composition of the population is taken into account in solving many practical problems: developing forecasts for the development of the public service sector, economic programs, regulating migration, etc. Data on the age composition of the population can be obtained both as a result of the population census and on the basis of current records. In state statistics services, population distributions are built according to one-year age groups: both sexes and separately - men and women. If a census program asks for age as "How old are you?" age accumulation (Age preference), i.e. rounding of age on figures ending in 0 or 5, which leads to an overestimation of the number of these age groups.
Age accumulation has two waves: large - accumulation of cases at ages ending in 0, and small - accumulation of cases at ages ending in 5. The lower the cultural and educational level of the population, the more pronounced the effect of age accumulation. An example of the presence of a large wave can be the data of the Russian census in 1897 (Table 4.2)
Table 4.2
The number of persons according to the 1897 Russian census, thousand people
A source: Urlanis B. Ts. population statistics. M.: Statistics, 1971. S. 28.
According to the given data, the number of women at the age of 70 is 12 times more than the number of women at the age of 71. The number of men at the age of 80 is 11 times more than at the age of 81. In women, the effect of age accumulation was more pronounced.
To measure the degree of age accumulation, a special indicator is used - the Whipple index (/С acc), which is calculated for the population over 22 years old:
where R x - population aged X years; X - age ending in zero or five.
In the absence of age accumulation, this figure is 100%. The more the indicator value deviates from 100%, the higher the age accumulation. According to the 1897 census, the age accumulation coefficient was: for men - 158%, for women - 191%. According to the All-Union Population Census of 1959, this figure was 107% for men and 111% for women. The WPN-2010 data showed no significant age-related accumulation.
To smooth the effect of age accumulation, the method is used. moving average with a five-year (ten-year) smoothing period. The effect of age accumulation can be eliminated by including in the census survey a question about the date of birth, which a person usually remembers and indicates accurately.
In addition to the desire to round one's age, there are two more sources of distortion of information about age: “female coquetry” and “senile coquetry”. "Women's coquetry" is expressed in the desire of women to downplay their age. "Old coquetry" is expressed in the desire of old people to exaggerate their age. A special check of data on age usually leads to a decrease in the number of centenarians compared to the originally recorded. For example, after the All-Union Census of 1959, as a result of a special verification of the age of those who indicated 100 years and older, the number of this category decreased by 25% and amounted to 21,708 people. (instead of 28,016 people according to the initial registration).
Based on age data, the population is grouped. The most detailed is the one-year grouping, i.e. the numbers of persons aged 0 years, 1 year, 2 years, etc., ..., 100 years or more are given. Such a grouping is carried out in combination with data no iolu, i.e. but men and women are grouped by age. To study the age structure, a grouping with a five-year age interval is often used, less often with a ten-year interval. When grouping with a five-year interval, the following groups are distinguished: 0 years, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, ..., 80-84, ..., 100 years or more. This is the so-called standard age grouping, which is used in international practice and is reflected in UN publications. It ensures the comparability of results from different censuses and surveys. In domestic statistics, groups are distinguished up to 1 year, 1, 2, 3, 4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14, ..., 80-84, 85 and more (see Demographic Yearbook of Russia).
Based on the distribution by one-year age groups, age groupings can be obtained with any interval, allowing to determine the number of different age contingents:
- first graders;
- persons of military age;
- persons of retirement age;
- of the population entitled to participate in elections (electorate), i.e. persons aged 18 and over;
- centenarians (persons aged 90 years and older);
- number of other categories of the population.
Particular attention is paid to the number of live births, from which those who lived for one to seven days (newborns) and those who lived for seven days - one year (infants) stand out.
The study of the population as a source of labor resources requires the identification of three groups of the population:
- younger than working age (according to Russian legislation, these are persons aged 0-15 years (up to 16 years));
- of working age (men aged 16-59 and women aged 16-54);
- over working age (men aged 60 and over, women aged 55 and over).
The indicator “average age of the population as of 01.01.XX” is calculated and published. - the entire population, men and women. In Russia, as of January 1, 2014, the average age of men was 36.6 years, women - 41.7 years.
The age structure of the population is taken into account when making comparisons of the reproduction of the population in different territories. Let's take an example. The following data are available for two cities A and B(Table 4.3).
Table 43
Initial data
Note. The mortality rate is expressed in ppm (lat. Promille per thousand, denoted by% o) and shows the number of deaths per 1000 people. population.
From the above data, it can be seen that the overall mortality rate is higher in the city V, although age rates are lower here than in the city A. This is due to the difference in the age composition of the population: in the city A younger population. To eliminate the influence of the structural factor, we calculate standardized indicators. Let us take as the standard age structure of the population a structure that unites both cities, A and V(Table 4.4).
Table 4.4
Standard age structure
With this in mind, we obtain standardized mortality rates: for the city A
for the city V
Comparison of standardized rates shows that the death rate is higher in the city A.
The higher the proportion of children and people of working age in the total population, the more favorable the demographic situation.
In modern Russia, a process of demographic aging of the population is taking place - the proportion of people older than working age in the total population is growing. Accordingly, the level and structure of the burden on the population of working age is changing. To quantitatively characterize the load of the working-age population, the total demographic load coefficient of the working-age population is calculated as the ratio of the number of people beyond working age to the number of people of working age:
where? * 0-15 - population under working age; R 5 5/bost - the number of the population older than the working age; L6-54/59 - population of working age.
The coefficient can be calculated in shares, percentages or per 1000 people. In the latter case, it shows how many people beyond working age (dependants) are per 1,000 people of working age.
The overall demographic load factor can be decomposed into two partial factors - the load factor for children (Kd) and the load factor for the elderly (K p):
All three coefficients are interconnected:
The ratio of the three named population groups in Russia is shown in Table. 4.5.
Table 4.5
Distribution of the population of Russia by age groups (according to population censuses)
A source". Russia in numbers. 2013: cr. stat. Sat. M., 2013
Comparing the age distributions of the two population censuses, we see that the proportion of people over working age increased by 2 percentage points, while the proportion of people younger than working age decreased by 6.4 percentage points. There are gender disproportions in all age groups: a slight excess of males in childhood and working age and a predominance of women over the working age.
Consider the dynamics of the dependency ratios (Table 4.6).
Table 4.6
Values of dependency ratios in Russia
Calculated by: Demographic Yearbook of Russia - 2013. M. : Rosstat, 2013. P. 36-37.
Table data. 4.5. and 4.6 testify to the aging of the Russian population, which is primarily due to a sharp decline in the birth rate in the early 1990s. The reduction in the overall demographic burden occurred due to a decrease in the burden of children and an increase in the burden of the elderly.
Population aging is not unique to our country. This process is gradually becoming global in nature and affects not only developed but also developing countries. The consequences of population aging are multifaceted. The burden on the healthcare system is significantly increasing, the economic behavior of people is changing (for example, it is believed that an increase in the proportion of older age groups in the number of employees may affect the ability of workers to perceive innovations, especially in the field of high technologies, etc.), and the problems of pension provision are aggravating.
For a visual representation of the age-sex structure of the population, a age-sex pyramid (Age-Sex pyramid or Population pyramid). The entire field of the graph is divided into two parts, between which the vertical axis "Age" is placed. To the left of this axis, the density or size distribution by age of the male population is shown, and to the right, the female population. If the distribution of both men and women is given for the same age groups, then in this case their numbers are comparable and there is no need to proceed to distribution density indicators. On fig. 4.3 shows the age-sex structure of the population of Russia as of January 1, 2014. The age-sex pyramid is a graphical representation of the combinational grouping of the population in the form of a strip chart. The length of the ribbon (horizontally located rectangle) is determined by the number of men and women of the corresponding age group. Usually, the age-sex pyramid is built according to 5-year age intervals (Fig. 4.3). Less commonly used are one-year age groups.
Rice. 4.3.
In addition to the given age-sex pyramid, pyramids are used that show the structure of the population by age and marital status, or pyramids of migrants by sex and age, etc.
The pre-revolutionary population of Russia was characterized by a symmetrical structure of the population by sex. The graph had the shape of a symmetrical pyramid, which reflected approximately equal mortality of the male and female population in the respective age groups, as well as a high birth rate, providing a wide base of the pyramid. This shape of the pyramid corresponds to the young population. The wide base of the pyramid, sharply tapering upwards, is a progressive type of age structure. The population pyramid of Russia in 2014 expands from the bottom upwards, and at the very top it sharply narrows. The expanding base of the pyramid arose as a result of an increase in the birth rate in the 2000s, the depression at the age of 10-17 years is associated with a decrease in the birth rate in the 1990s. In general, this is a regressive type of age structure, reflecting the aging process.
Distinguish demographic aging from below and above. Aging from below occurs due to a decrease in fertility; aging from above - due to an increase in life expectancy and an increase in the number of old people (with a significantly inferior increase in the number of children).
The international UN statistics adopted the following scale of population aging by the proportion of people aged 65 and over:
- young population - the proportion of people aged 65 and over is less than 4% of the total;
- population on the verge of old age - from 4 to 7%
- old population - over 7%
In Russian statistics, population aging is usually measured by the proportion of people aged 60 and over.
Process population aging(population aging - aging) is global. According to the UN forecast, by 2050, even in most developing countries, the proportion of the population aged 65 will double (Fig. 4.4).